Movie bets: Judge by the peak

You're assessing someone for a big opportunity. Do you look at their most recent work? What the references say? The producer behind "The Social Network" built his career on a third path.

Michael De Luca is one of Hollywood's most successful producers. He became president of production at New Line at 27 - one of the youngest ever. Over his career, he's produced three Best Picture nominees and helped launch the careers of directors like Paul Thomas Anderson and the Farrelly brothers.

In Hollywood, they judge by the flop. The thing that bombed. The disaster that tanked someone's career.

De Luca doesn't. He judges by the best thing someone's ever done.

Take David Fincher. After a string of disasters, his stock was low. No one wanted to hire him. But De Luca had seen "Seven". He knew what Fincher was capable of under the right conditions.

That belief led to "The Social Network". Totally different genre. Completely different film. And one of the defining movies of the 21st century.

Here's the thing: our biases pull us toward recent information. Especially the negative stuff. The failure. The misstep. The thing that didn't work. Loss aversion is powerful - even when we know better.

But what if you flipped it?

What if you judged people based on the best thing you've seen them do - and asked whether, under the right conditions, they could do it again? Or even surpass it?

Common sense? Maybe. But common sense isn't common.

When you're assessing talent - whether you're hiring, promoting, or building a team - the question doesn't have to be "What did they do last?"

It could be "What are they capable of when everything clicks?"

The choice is yours.